The Strategic Fleet Supply and Demand Forecast has been released, providing robust, evidence-based insights into Australia’s maritime freight workforce over the next 5–10 years. The forecast supports informed decision-making on establishing the Strategic Fleet workforce and strengthening a sustainable pipeline of skilled seafarers.
The forecast delivers on Recommendation 9 of the Australian Government’s response to the Strategic Fleet Taskforce Report and workforce priorities identified in the 2024, 2025 and 2026 Maritime Industry Workforce Plans and Update.
Undertaken by Industry Skills Australia (ISA), the forecast brings together multiple datasets for the first time, offering unprecedented visibility into the size, composition, and future dynamics of Australia’s maritime freight workforce. It provides:
- A comprehensive profile of Australia’s current maritime freight workforce
- Insights into training and career pathways, qualification completions and employment outcomes
- Analysis of workforce entry, progression, and exit flows, including Near Coastal and STCW transition
- Scenario-based forecasts to support targeted policy and investment over the next 5-10 years
A key feature of the forecast is the use of systems dynamic modelling to simulate workforce changes over time. This approach incorporates factors such as age and gender profiles, promotions, retirement, and industry growth, enabling a clearer understanding of future workforce supply and demand under different scenarios.
The analysis focuses on seafarers holding certifications aligned with the International Convention on Standards of Training, Certification and Watchkeeping for Seafarers (STCW), a critical workforce segment for achieving Australia’s Strategic Fleet objectives.
